Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2161 · JAX → DEN
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.31 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.