Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2169 · KOA → HNL
departs 3:35 PM HT · arrives 4:30 PM HT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.