Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2178
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2178 · TPA → BHM
departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.