Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2186 · ECP → MCI
departs 11:35 AM CT · arrives 1:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ECP that day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.27 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.