Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2211 · SNA → LAS
departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 11:15 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.