Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2214 · SMF → BNA
departs 6:05 AM PT · arrives 12:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SMF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.