Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2219 · HOU → JAX
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
25%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
25%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 3.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.