Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2230 · HOU → OAK
departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.