Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2230 · OAK → BUR
departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 7:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.