Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2269 · TPA → SDF
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.