Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2291 · TPA → PVD
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.15 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.