Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2318 · HOU → TPA
departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±3 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.