Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2415 · TPA → ISP
departs 11:20 AM ET · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into ISP at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.