WN 246 · MCO → SAT

took off 8:11 PM ET · landed 9:33 PM CT (scheduled 6:30 PM ET → 8:34 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 246 · MCO → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?