Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2475 · PHX → SAN
departs 7:15 PM MT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.