Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2475 · RDU → PHX
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.15 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.