Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2477 · LAS → RNO
departs 8:10 PM PT · arrives 9:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.