Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2499 · STL → PDX
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.