Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2524 · HOU → STL
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 2:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.