Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2530 · STL → SFO
departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.