Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2587 · TPA → MDW
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.