Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2612 · MCO → BWI
departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 11:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.