Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2636 · MCO → HOU
departs 6:20 AM ET · arrives 7:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.