Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2640 · MDW → MSY
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 733 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.