Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 264 · ATL → STL
departs 2:40 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.