Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2678 · MCO → PBI
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 54%
Fri 10/9 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
PBI (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.