Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2681
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2681 · MCO → PHX
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.