Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2717 · MCO → TUL
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at TUL that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.