Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2729 · HOU → SDF
departs 1:20 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Cloud base down to 1,467 ft forecast at SDF that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.