Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2729 · SDF → BWI
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from SDF are often late
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.