Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2741 LANDED 9:34 PM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 2741 · MCO → MCI

took off 8:09 PM ET · landed 9:34 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2741 · MCO → MCI

Odds over time