WN 2793 · MCO → RSW

took off 9:48 PM ET · landed 10:20 PM ET (scheduled 9:00 PM ET → 10:09 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RSW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2793 · MCO → RSW

Odds over time

How late did it get to RSW?