Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2794 · MDW → LAS
departs 11:20 AM CT · arrives 1:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.