WN 2794 · SAN → SFO

took off 10:56 AM PT · landed 11:58 AM PT (scheduled 10:16 AM PT → 11:59 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2794 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?