Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2830 · LAX → BWI
departs 1:05 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +29 pts in 24h
+29 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.