Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2844 · MSY → MDW
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.90 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.