Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 284
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 284 · DAL → SMF
departs 7:50 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sat 10/3
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.