Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 284
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 284 · MCO → DAL
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.