Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2853 LANDED 2:07 PM PT, ~25 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 2853 · PHX → SEA

took off 11:36 AM MT · landed 2:07 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2853 · PHX → SEA

Odds over time