Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2857 · MCO → DAL
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.