Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2861 LANDED 1:04 PM PT, ~96 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 2861 · PHX → SAN

took off 12:09 PM MT · landed 1:04 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2861 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time