Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2881 · MDW → RSW
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.