Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2948
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2948 · LAS → TUS
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 11:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.