Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 295 · SMF → LAX
departs 3:40 PM PT · arrives 5:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.