Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2976
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2976 · MSY → AUS
departs 6:15 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.