Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2981 LANDED 6:28 AM MT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 2981 · RNO → PHX

took off 5:07 AM PT · landed 6:28 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2981 · RNO → PHX

Odds over time