Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2986
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2986 · MSY → BWI
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 8:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.57 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.