Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3003 · MSY → LAS
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 8:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MSY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.74 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.