Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3034 · OAK → AUS
departs 9:20 AM PT · arrives 2:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
9am departures from OAK are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.