Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 3045 · HOU → PHX
departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 6:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.